cessna piper

My decision to become a pilot was completely non-pragmatic - I am
doing it purely for challenge, excitement and fun. It has recently
occurred to me that possessing a pilot license may actually be quite
beneficial considering certain negative trends in passenger aviation.
I'd like to share my thoughts on this and hear your feedback. Don't
hesitate to stone me if you think I am paranoid, after all that's what
UseNet is about - a free exchange of opinions.

Let me try to predict what passenger aviation will look like in, say,
10 years. The future does not look good. Here is why:

1. Terrorist threat. That's not going away no matter how many
countries we invade and bomb to pieces. Soon, we will have to arrive
at the airport 4 hours before the flight and be prepared for a strip
search.

2. High oil prices. Ticket prices will keep climbing.

3. Airlines struggling to stay in business. This is closely
related to items 1 and 2. Airline companies will be forced to cut
corners whenever possible, including level of service (forget those
hot meals), and most importantly, will have to cut back on maintenance
and renewal of the aging aircraft. Flight safety will decline.
Bankruptcies of many major airlines are imminent.

4. ATC dispatcher retirement. Soon, many highly trained and
experienced personnel will retire. There is already a shortage of
dispatchers, and it's going to get much worse soon. This will have a
negative impact on flight safety along with item 3.


These and other negative trends will inevitably lead to this: flying
as a passenger will become an expensive and dangerous nightmare.
What's a man to do? Fly his own airplane, of course! General aviation
is much less susceptible to the factors described above. It could be
that GA will become more and more popular, and getting a pilot license
will take longer and cost more due to an increase in demand. So get
yours while you still can! Comments anyone?

kontiki

This I agree with... but forces are at work which desire to inject
similar measures into GA flights. If we can't stop the trend in commercial
aviation it will spread to GA.

GA is feeling the same pressures when it comes to fuel prices.


I think maintenance and safety will be the last to suffer. People will get
laid off and flights will become more like a new york subway ride for sure.


lower quality of controllers would affect GA as much as commercial aviation.
Only advantage for GA is that we can fly VFR and avoid most of that but then
you have to examine the problem of a potential increased number of GA VFR
pilots.... quality unknown factor.


I believe that flying commercial will continue to be one the safest methods
of travel. It may not be the most pleasant though. The trend in this country
seems to be that exchanging freedom for the promise of "security" is a
good thing. That's very sad... however GA will provide some respite for
those of use who still value individual freedoms over security. Enjoy it
while you can.

andrew sarangan

In fact, Avgas is more at risk to price hikes than jetfuel. I read
somewhere that only a tiny fraction of the oil production goes to avgas. It
will be very easy for the oil companies to drop production of avgas and not
suffer any losses.

roy smith

The Chevron web site has some good info about aviation fuels:

http://www.chevron.com/prodserv/fuel.../7_ag_intro.sh
tm
Here's a quote:


Given what a miniscule fraction of the total market it is, and the
special manufacturing, tracability, and handling requirements (not to
mention potential liability), it's amazing it's only 20% more than mogas.

jim weir

This has always been a mystery to me. Understand that aircraft galleys have to
have the highest cost meals in the world...much more expensive to install, waste
valuable passenger space, power, and work than the most expensive restaurants in
the world.

Then there is the problem of the passenger who wants a kosher (or veggie, or
lacto, or Atkin) meal and there are none because they forgot to tell the gate
agent their needs. Or the oven busts a gut and nobody gets food. Or...any one
of a number of things you can't do a damned thing about at FL340.

Why in the world the airlines don't all get together and put in one huge
delicatessen in each airport and everybody with a ticket gets a sealed sack
lunch of their choosing is beyond me. Hell, you have to get there two hours
early anyway, why not simply use those two hours to get a bring-it-yourself
meal.

First class? No problem. A single microwave can heat that pastrami sandwich up
quite nicely, thank you. Cold wine? Hey, buddy, this is an AIRPLANE, not the
Queen Mary.

Just some thoughts, mindya...

Jim

(Or, as W.C. Fields once remarked, "There are two classes of travel: first
class and with children.")


->> 3. Airlines struggling to stay in business. This is closely
->> related to items 1 and 2. Airline companies will be forced to cut
->> corners whenever possible, including level of service (forget those
->> hot meals)


Jim Weir (A&P/IA, CFI, & other good alphabet soup)
VP Eng RST Pres. Cyberchapter EAA Tech. Counselor
http://www.rst-engr.com jim@rst-engr.com

icebound

Those in and of themselves are sufficient reasons, are they not?


This is a pure red herring. Whether it is drive-by shootings on the
freeway or idiots with weapons in an airplane, terrorist threats will wax
and wane. See: http://www.nupi.no/IPS/filestore/Root_Causes_report.pdf
Terrorist threats can be met to an acceptable degree, and we don't need to
bomb any countries to pieces to do it.

Somebody already mentioned that jet fuel may be less vulnerable than
avgas... but beyond that, the actual cost of fuel may not be a big deal.
Industry can be quite innovative in cutting other costs. (We thought the
cost of fuel was going to be a big deal when it spiked 30 years ago)

However, there is always SOME possibility that the cost per person-mile for
GA may one day dip near that of airlines
http://www.diamondair.com/contentc/prTwinAtlan.htm
Of course there is more to the cost-per-mile than just the cost of fuel.


There will be spectacular failures, but there will also be innovative new
companies that will do very well, thank you. It is happening right now in
Canada, (and probably in the USA, too). While Air-Canada is in and out of
bankruptcy courts, its main competitor appears healthy finacially, and is
providing a service at reasonable cost. Sure, okay, no meals... but the
service is otherwise satisfactory and the seats are leather even in economy.

I would argue that, if cost escalation is the issue, GA flight safety will
decline a lot quicker than airline flight safety, because airlines know
exactly how liable they are.... The private owner is a lot more likely to
cut corners, when maintenance costs get prohibitive.


I can foresee innovations in Traffic Control that may well see many aircraft
flying an IFR flight end-to-end without every speaking to a real-person
controller. And guess what?, those innovations will likely show up in the
airline industry before GA. Unless retrofitted, GA aircraft may be at a disadvantage.


Probably more susceptible. And even if not, are the current GA airports
adequately equipped to handle this huge increase in GA traffic that you
foresee??? I wonder how easy it is to build a modern GA airport from scratch, today?


This may be true. But only because more people have the money and the time
to spend on getting one, not because of any decline in the ability of
airlines to transport an individual more efficiently and cheaply.

Having said that, of course your own plane and the ability to fly it may
give you an escape in the event of complete civil collapse (providing you
can get to the airport).... but after your tanks run dry in five or six
hours, it may not matter much anyway.


--
*** A great civilization is not conquered from without until it
has destroyed itself from within. ***
- Ariel Durant 1898-1981

ratty boy

You are bordering on thoughtcrime. ;-)

icebound

Those in and of themselves are sufficient reasons, are they not?


This is a pure red herring. Whether it is drive-by shootings on the
freeway or idiots with weapons in an airplane, terrorist threats will wax
and wane. See: http://www.nupi.no/IPS/filestore/Root_Causes_report.pdf
Terrorist threats can be met to an acceptable degree, and we don't need to
bomb any countries to pieces to do it.

Somebody already mentioned that jet fuel may be less vulnerable than
avgas... but beyond that, the actual cost of fuel may not be a big deal.
Industry can be quite innovative in cutting other costs. (We thought the
cost of fuel was going to be a big deal when it spiked 30 years ago)

However, there is always SOME possibility that the cost per person-mile for
GA may one day dip near that of airlines
http://www.diamondair.com/contentc/prTwinAtlan.htm
Of course there is more to the cost-per-mile than just the cost of fuel.


There will be spectacular failures, but there will also be innovative new
companies that will do very well, thank you. It is happening right now in
Canada, (and probably in the USA, too). While Air-Canada is in and out of
bankruptcy courts, its main competitor appears healthy finacially, and is
providing a service at reasonable cost. Sure, okay, no meals... but the
service is otherwise satisfactory and the seats are leather even in economy.

I would argue that, if cost escalation is the issue, GA flight safety will
decline a lot quicker than airline flight safety, because airlines know
exactly how liable they are.... The private owner is a lot more likely to
cut corners, when maintenance costs get prohibitive.


I can foresee innovations in Traffic Control that may well see many aircraft
flying an IFR flight end-to-end without every speaking to a real-person
controller. And guess what?, those innovations will likely show up in the
airline industry before GA. Unless retrofitted, GA aircraft may be at a disadvantage.


Probably more susceptible. And even if not, are the current GA airports
adequately equipped to handle this huge increase in GA traffic that you
foresee??? I wonder how easy it is to build a modern GA airport from scratch, today?


This may be true. But only because more people have the money and the time
to spend on getting one, not because of any decline in the ability of
airlines to transport an individual more efficiently and cheaply.

Having said that, of course your own plane and the ability to fly it may
give you an escape in the event of complete civil collapse (providing you
can get to the airport).... but after your tanks run dry in five or six
hours, it may not matter much anyway.


--
*** A great civilization is not conquered from without until it
has destroyed itself from within. ***
- Ariel Durant 1898-1981

andrew gideon

Ah ha! That explains the nasty looks we get when strapping our
now-two-year-old into his first class seat.

BTW, I've flown on flights where we picked our meal bags up during entry. I
think it was one of those first cheap airlines that did this (Peoples?).

I lived. And I didn't have to deal with those monster carts blocking the
asle. Like you, I've no idea why this isn't done more often.

- Andrew

cessna piper

To get things straight, I am an adamant opponent of the invading and
bombing, and even watched an anti-Bush rally today in Manhattan while
standing on the corner of 34th and 7th ave (I did not join the
protesters only because I figured I was too tattoo-less and too
heterosexual to blend in).

Now back to the subject: you've got to admit that GA pilots and their
passengers can still get in and ouf of a plane without having to take
off their shoes and laptops out of the bags. We choose what airplanes
to fly and how much to spend on their maintenance, and we can fly
without ATC in good weather.

BTW I am not yet a pilot, but hopefully will be soon. My first
touch-and-go was scheduled for Monday, but because of the damn RNC all
training flights were cancelled (my airport, CDW, is within a 20nm
radius from Newark).

Thanks for responding!