ny.transfer_news

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

Lebanon: Diplomatic drive finally underway

Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit

sent by Simon McGuinness

[It is beginning to look like Rice's real mission is to beg Hezbollah not
to invade Israel.

Before she left the USA the message was all about finding a plan to
allow a ceasefire to be productive. After 10 hours in the air she
landed not in Israel, as planned, but in Beirut, signalling an immediate
change of emphasis. The only thing that happened in those 10 hours,
apart from the continuing media coverage of Israeli targeting of
civilians and carpet bombing of civilian infrastructure, was that
several Israeli incursions had been repelled and memories of the last
time the Israeli military encountered Hezbollah were reawakened (that
time the Israelis lost).

According to Irish military analysts (who saw the last Israeli defeat
at first hand as part of the UNIFIL mission in southern Lebanon), Israel
has bitten off more than it can chew and if they don't agree to a
ceasefire within days, there will be much bigger stakes for Hezbollah to
play for. The use of artillery in the waddi terrain of south Lebanon is
considered "futile" by Irish military officers experienced in operating
in the region. The Israelis could bomb for years and not significantly
degrade the Hezbollah positions. The use of helicopters is out since
the Hezbollah shot down a helicopter yesterday. And precision guided
missiles have failed to yield any tangible results due to poor
intelligence. This time around, the Israeli ground troops are less
formidable. All are conscripts and many are recruited from the recent
wave of immigration from eastern Europe following the collapse of the
socialist states. They are about as reliable as Russian conscripts.
Hezbollah ground troops, in contrast, are committed religious zealots
with a deep hatred of Israel and personal memories of the last time
Israel tried to bomb them into the sea. All are volunteers. Some have
even expressly signed up for suicide missions.

It is becoming hard to see where Israel can go from here.

Talk of getting agreement on a peace enforcing outside force under UN
jurisdiction is wishful thinking as, even if there was a candidate
agreeable to both sides, it would soon become the meat in the sandwich
(as the Irish battalion was last time that was tried). Both sides need
to be convinced that they can't win before they will agree to ceasefire,
and Hezbollah are no where near that point ... yet. It looks
suspiciously like some one within the Israel government realises that
the Israeli military may already be there, and have told Rice so. -SMcG]


The Independent - 25 July 2006
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/...cle1195294.ece

Diplomatic drive finally under way as Rice flies in

By Anne Penketh in Jerusalem and Colin Brown

Condoleezza Rice flew to Israel last night speaking of the need for an "
urgent ceasefire" with Hizbollah after visiting Beirut to see the
devastation from Israeli bombing raids that have left hundreds of
Lebanese civilians dead and hundreds of thousands homeless.

President George Bush had rejected an appeal from the Saudi leadership
for an immediate ceasefire, saying it would be unenforceable. But Ms
Rice, the US Secretary of State, softened her tone as she prepared for
an international conference in Rome tomorrow with proposals for a
solution.

"It is very important to establish conditions under which a ceasefire
can take place. We believe that a ceasefire is urgent. It is important
to have conditions that will make it also sustainable," Ms Rice said.

Last night, she went straight into talks with Tzipi Livni, the Israeli
Foreign Minister, in Jerusalem and she is to meet Ehud Olmert, the Prime
Minister, and Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President, separately
today.

In Beirut, Ms Rice told Nabih Berri, the Parliament's Speaker who is an
ally of Hizbollah and close to Syria, that a ceasefire deal must include
Hizbollah's withdrawal beyond the Litani river, 13 miles north of
Israel, and the deployment of an international force in the border
region, a Lebanese political source said.

Israeli officials and analysts said they expected Israel's offensive,
which has already lasted for 13 days, to continue for at least another
week. A high-ranking Israeli said the immediate ceasefire demanded by
the UN was impossible. Ms Rice "is speaking the language of diplomacy.
She is softening her language because there will be important officials
in Rome, including Arab officials," he said.

Tony Blair continued to refuse to condemn the Israeli attacks on
Lebanon, prompting a public split with the Prime Minister of Iraq, who
was in London yesterday. Mr Blair said after talks with Nouri al-Maliki
the action in Lebanon was a "catastrophe", but the Iraqi leader said it
was " beyond a catastrophe - it violates everything that the
international community can be based on". The disagreement with Mr
Maliki underlined the damage being done to Mr Blair's standing in the
Middle East.

The Rome meeting is expected to discuss proposals for an international
force that could underpin a ceasefire. Israel, which previously rejected
such a call from Kofi Annan, the UN secretary general, and Mr Blair, now
agreed a force "with teeth" should replace the impotent 2,000-strong UN
force in southern Lebanon.

Amir Peretz, the Israeli defence minister, surprised many on Sunday by
suggesting that Nato could provide a force, while Mr Olmert spoke of
European and Arab states as troop contributors. British, German and
French foreign ministry officials held talks with Israeli and
Palestinian officials on Sunday, but it seems no country is offering
troops. An Israeli official said: "It looks like the French will take
the lead," because of France's historic ties to Lebanon.

Agreement on an international force, which would enforce a "sterile zone
" deprived of Hizbollah fighters in southern Lebanon along the Israeli
border, is likely to take some time. So that leaves the door open to
Israel to continue its offensive.

There is a danger that the Lebanese governmentcould collapse, dealing a
blow to Israel's stated goal of allowing the Lebanese authorities to
extend their sovereignty down to the country's southern border.

"What we're seeing here, in a sense, is ... the birth pangs of a new
Middle East and, whatever we do, we have to be certain that we're
pushing forward to the new Middle East, not going back to the old one,"
Ms Rice said.

*
================================================== ==============
NY Transfer News Collective * A Service of Blythe Systems
Since 1985 - Information for the Rest of Us
Search Archives: http://olm.blythe-systems.com/htdig/search.html
List Archives: http://olm.blythe-systems.com/pipermail/nytr/
Subscribe: http://olm.blythe-systems.com/mailman/listinfo/nytr
================================================== ==============

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG v1.4.2.2 (FreeBSD)

iD8DBQFExj4aHwEfpL2U00kRAhUhAJ4yo/tj7ycuNxcbWBY8fYVNC6BitQCeKJ1b
v2OyYJ/2j+9qYKihgH2GpcE=
=eW1g
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


--
Posted via a free Usenet account from http://www.teranews.com