howard bennett

So what happened to the much-vaunted GOP upsurge in Hawaii?

I suspect the Hawaii Republicans started crowing a bit too much about
how
they were going to put Bush over the top -- and brought out a lot of
people
who wanted to make sure that didn't happen.

Do you folks have any thoughts about what this may mean for Ms. Lingle's
national aspirations (and her future Hawaii aspirations for that
matter),
since she wasn't able to deliver?

Also, the national GOP sank a lot of moolah into a couple of pretty
cruddy
Congressional candidates, both of whom got creamed. Any thoughts about
their futures -- especially the apalling Mike Gabbard?

Howard

judy

Howard, you shoulda been here....with a land-line phone. Everybody I
know got 2 calls from The Governator wanting to "pump you up" to vote
for Bush/Cheney. The first time I thought it was a prank call and
laughed my arse off. Most of the calls for local candidates were coming
from Mainland area codes. We were getting 5-10 calls a day for
candidates at all levels.

What was that Bush-ism? Don't misunderestimate him. He may not have cut
it statewide, but his view sells in some districts. Clearly his one
issue was one that played well nationally and earned Bush the "mandate"
he claims he got. Heard a guy today speculating that even though he knew
it would never fly, Bush's posturing about a constitutional amendment
banning *** marriage was EXACTLY the right bone to throw the religious
right to spur them to action, fearing that if Kerry were elected there'd
be *** guys screwing on every street corner from Hana to Bar Harbor.

The next 4 years certainly promise to galvanize the folks who lean left!

quante981

Yeah, it was the turnout. What If the turnout had been in the high
40% low 50% range. Bush would have had a better shot of picking off
the state. Check the vote totals in the legislative races compared to
the last general election especially in the House. They might have
got the 3 or 4 seats to veto proof the legislature. But Hawaii is
still leans heavily Democratic and the base woke up before it was too late.


Looking at other states, what do governors do when they are done being
governor. What other statewide higher office is available to them to
continue on their political quest? Only one other.

Near term it will be interesting to see what happens when the 2005
legislative session starts in January. Lingle used mainland GOP
strategies to target the Democrat seats and lost. What comes
around...? Bush says he has a mandate from the American people. He
says he earned political capital and he is going to use it to get his
legislative agenda passed. Will the Hawaii legislature do the same
thing? Will they say the 2004 election gave them a statewide mandate
and use its political capital earned in the election? ...goes around?


That seemed to be part of the national strategy to drive votes to Bush
like the ban on *** marriage in several state elections on the
mainland. When two of the three Congressional races here started
using the tactic, you sort of got the feeling that someone somewhere
was pulling the strings. But Hawaii isn't the Midwest or the South.
The same strategy imported here obviously failed. Again if the
turnout had been low as in past years it might have been much closer.

Give credit to the guy running against Abercrombie that he didn't use
the issue. Could it have played a role why they wound up 'eating
their own'? Ooh, stuff of blogs.

jerry okamura

The bottom line is, it is still a heavily democratic state....that is
your
answer.

howard bennett

Funny thing about Gabbard. He ran as the conservative Xtian (won't
dignify
that brand of "religion" it by using Jesus' name), but in reality got
most
of his individual contributions from right-wing noni-growing followers
of
Krishna (see this week's Hawaii Island Journal). Hmm...

news:<1099627202-sch@news.lava.net>...

judy

You sent me hunting. The current issue of Hawaii Island Journal is not
available online, but this was:

http://www.kaleo.org/vnews/display.v/ART/2002/12/04/3ded95047e3c8?
in_archive=1

Eeeyyyeeewwwwwwww! Slimier than I'd even imagined!

raf

Thanks Judy, I always wondered about that. How can a person come out
of nowhere and win with no apparent support from any of the major
parties.

alvin e. toda

Like the inaccurate exit polling during the election, I
think that a more carefull ****ysis will show that the
earlier poll of the Bush-Kerry contest just
over-represented the Republicans. The Democrats were
really 10 points ahead all the time.

--alvin

wing

I think the method is wrong. How many people here actually
sit around answering the phone about 6 p.m.??

The national exit polls are curious: until about 6-7 pm. our
time, they show Kerry well ahead. Why? Democrats like to
vote early?? I think it should be the reverse, many Democrats
vote AFTER work.

-Wing

quante981

Juicy but that wasn't the only story about his contributions.

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.asp?
ID=HI02&cycle=2004&special=N

It's not the final report but even if you only eyeball it you can see
what was an equally juicy aspect (if not more so) of his
contributions. Jumps out at you.

Noticed you glossed over the rest of the reply. So is that a you
agree? Besides, if 41-10/20-5 isn't a mandate, then what is? Do the
pundits expect 51-0/25-0 before declaring a mandate?