jack twilley

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I've been following the recent events in Northern Ireland, and I don't
understand what's going on.

Based on what I've read in RTE, the BBC, the Guardian, and other news
sources, a three-act play was carefully orchestrated -- the
republicans were to announce a major act of decommissioning and make a
speech asserting that they would comply with the agreement and use
political methods to achieve their goals instead of violence, the IICD
was to confirm the decommissioning, and the unionists were to make a
speech similar to that made by the republicans.

But that's not what happens. The first two sounded like they went as
planned, but the third didn't. David Trimble's speech appeared to
indicate surprise at the lack of transparency in the decommissioning.
It wasn't immediately clear to me what he wanted but what was clear
was that he was prepared to give the speech he gave, and thus he knew
he was going to screw up everyone's plans for happily-ever-after.

The Good Friday Agreement (which folks on this newsgroup encouraged me
to read) discusses decommissioning and refers to the IICD but does not
describe the decommissioning schemes in detail. Specifically, it
doesn't say what level of detail is required to be made public with
regard to the arms that were decommissioned.

On the one hand, I can see why the unionists might want details like
how many weapons of which types were destroyed and what percentage of
the total weapons that number represents. On the other hand, it seems
rather immature for them to complain publicly about something to which
it appears they have already agreed.

What's really going on here? Are the unionists trying to avoid a
peaceful resolution? Are the republicans trying to destroy as few
weapons as is necessary for the unionists to let down their guard? Or
am I missing something else entirely?

Jack.
- --
Jack Twilley
jmt at twilley dot org
http colon slash slash www dot twilley dot org slash tilde jmt slash
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conor booze o brien

Decommissioning is a nonsense issue that was invented by the British
and Unionists some years ago to make progress difficult.

It's achieved that aim.

The problem is that now that people do want to make progress it's
still there getting in the way.

The resolution of the issue was for Trimble and Adams to agree
privately on a way around this nonsense issue.

They did that.

Then when Adams and the IRA had played their part in this little game,
Trimble turned around and pretended in public that Decommissioning was
a real issue again.

That's what's going on.


Conor

nik

All of that is true but I'd add the suggestion that it is
electioneering being carried out by Trimble to make him look good in
Unionist eyes so that its the UUP not the DUP that triumphs, on the
Unionist side, in the upcoming elections.

Nik

féachadóir

Scríobh Jack Twilley <jmt+usenet@twilley.org>:


You'll fit right in then.


First there was a prologue. The British government announced a date
for the postponed elections.

So far so good, and there was an epilogue planned where Ahern and
Blair would pat everyone on the head.


Alternatively, act two (decommissioning) didn't deliver all that was
expected, leading act three (Trimble) to cry foul.

Indeed.

There's an act of parliament which goes into a bit more detail if
you're interested.

The key word is "appear". Unionists say they thought they would be
given more detail.

What we have here is a failure to communicate, as Boss put it in Cool
Hand Luke.


Its plain old politics. Everyone wants as much as possible for as
little as possible.

--
"Ferr fíor fertaib"
Féachadóir

conor booze o brien

Yes, but it's a double-edged sword that. There are as many think he's
been fooled as think he's being shrewd.

It could all backfire.


Conor

nik

It could. I'm expecting some sort of dramatic scripted development in
the week before the election that will make Trimble look great in the
eyes of the Unionist community...and the time will be too short for
the DUP to react.

Trimble must have known what the story was to be re: decommissioning
before it happened....

The happenings fit with my theory about the May election(s) being put
off, that is, the British and Irish government wanted to forestall the
possibility of the traditionally UUP voting public moving to the DUP
because they now feel that the GFA offers too much to the 'taigs' and
if the DUP were the largest Unionist Party in Stormount that would be
a disaster because Big Ian just won't negotiate...you know yourself.

Soo....in order to head of the Donaldsons and the Burnsides in the
UUP, Trimble has to, now, appear strong but he now has to pull a bunny
out of a hat in a few weeks time.

Thats what I reckon anyway.

Nik

conor booze o brien

So it would have to be another Save Dave op.

He does get himself into some sc****s, does Dave.

There's no doubt about that now.

Unionists are being quoted as stating that the transparency
requirement was "not nailed down"

It was only a "subtle" agreement.

They're backtracking.

This could mean a number of things.

There is a strong pragmatic element in the DUP and much of their
activity is about replacing the UUP as largest Unionist party.

They might be easier to work with than you think.

And there are benefits to SF working with them rather than the UUP, if
a working-with was possible.


Yup. Could well be.


Conor

reb buidlear

Waht's it to you Nazi boy?

You're not irish, and you're definitely nothing to do with northern
ireland.

Eve rlive there?

Didn't think so.

Bertie

nik

Come back to us when you're prepared to actually debate. As it stands
your utterance is worthless.

Nik

bertie the bunyip

So you say, but it's you who's not prepared to debate, nazi boy.

You lie and then run awya and call it debating?

Bwahwhahwhahwhahhwhahwhahwhahwhhah!

Bertie