keith mills

Never has Harold Wilson's old phrase that "a week is a long time in politics"
proved to be so true. This time last week we were waiting for "a historical
day", but instead we were treated to a hysterical day of recrimination and
confusion.

In light of last week's shenanigans I've made some minor adjustments to my
election prediction, and as I have been asked for more transperancy I shall
oblige (unlike others) with some more definition on my prediction.

I think that the only party to gain from last week's events are the SDLP.
They have succeed in putting a little more water between themselves and the
SDLP which will help the get more terminal unionist transfers. The main losers
will be SF/IRA. By playing to their own hardliners they are as risk of putting
off SDLP transfers and the hardliners were alays going to vote SF/IRA in
any event.

On the unionist side, Trimble has undoubtedly been weakened but there is
now a greater degree of commonality between him and the Donaldson/Smyth/Burnside
group.

So my prediction for this week (as always for the mentally challenged I'm
predicting seats not vote share).

DUP : 28 (same as last week and up from 20 at the last election). I've been
asked to name the constituencies where the gains will be made. In decreasing
order of certainty;
East Antrim
North Down
North Belfast
East Londonderry
Upper Bann
South Antrim
Strangford
Lagan Valley
There's a real outside chance of 3 seats in East Belfast and East Antrim,
but that would require a bit of a landslide from 1998.

UUP : 27 (down from 28 predicted last week and achieved at the last election).
The lost seat will be Peter Weir's in North Down and I no longer think that
the UUP will take 3 in South Antrim as DSD is apparently standing down.

SDLP : 22 (down from 24 at the last election and up one from what I predicted
last week).
The two losses I'm predicting are East Londonderry and West Tyrone). However
I now think that unionist transfers will mean they will hold their second
seat in West Belfast.

SF/IRA : 21 (up from 18 at the last election, but down one on last week's
prediction).
As mentioned above I no longer think that they will take 5/6 in West Belfast
but they will take the two other SDLP seats. I also think that a second seat
in North Belfast is likely.

APNI : 6 (same as 1998, and up one from last week).
I'm being charitable here as I think APNI will lose least from the drop in
the voting register I now think they might hold the seat in South Antrim.

NIWC : 2 (same as 1998 and as predicted last week).

PUP : 1 (down from 2 in 1998).
I remain to be convinced that Hutchinson can hold on in North Belfast.

UKUP : 1 (down from 5 in 1998, but the same as last week).
I now believe McCartney will contest the election. Even if he does not, there
should be a seat in North Down.

NIUP : 0 (losing the seats they gained when leaving the UKUP).
I think Wilson has a small chance in Strangord, but that's it.

UUAP : 0 (losing all 3 members).
Their best hope for hanging on is in East Londonderry.

Others : 0 (as before).

There's some interesting maths to be worked out here. If you add the DUP
and the UKUP you get 29 which is 2 ahead of the UUP. The PUPs have backed
Trimble in the past but are unlikely to now. This makes Robinson (or Paisley)
the most likely First Minister. Were the APNI or the NIWC to pull the "unionist
for a day" trick, then expect Donaldson, Burnside etc, to pull away from
the Trimble camp, making such a move pointless.

The call on deputy first minister is wide open. If the SDLP can stay ahead
of SF/IRA (which is difficult with so many big names gone), then Durkan might
just make it. One wonders would APNI or the NIWC be prepared to be "nationalists
for a day" to stop the terrorists. Unlikely I think!

Keith

nik

The SDLP has succeeded in putting a little more water between the
SDLP?

Your piss poor logical skills are showing again.

If this is the level of brilliant reasoning power that's led you to
the ideological position that you're at, then I suggest you take
another look at your own ideology...

Nik

delber

Look at who's talking.


Bertie