lorenzo

Hello,

We are now at 38 weeks and maternity leave has started. Everyone says
"First Baby is usually later than 40 weeks" but then there are so many
examples of early births too.

So, it is possible to know/assess/guess when 1st baby is likely to arrive??
All the measurements of development have been exactly "by the book".

Many thanks in advance.

dagny

arrive??

No. One US doctor did a fairly large study looking at the medical records
of women going into spontaneous labor. Median for white women was 41 weeks,
1 day for first baby IIRC. Black women, a few days earlier. We did a poll
on this board not too long ago, and for spontaneous labor about half
delivered first babies before 41 weeks and half after. Again IIRC.

Dagny
Mom to Meg, 10/03 (first tiny contractions felt at 41+1, active labor at
41+3)
#2 1/05

sophie

arrive??

Nope. I quit work at 37 weeks, thinking I'd have at least 3 weeks to get
ready. I had 1 week

Ya never know IMO.

--
Sophie
mom of 4

stormlady

In my pre-natal class I was told ~25% go late, ~5% on time, so I would
assume that about 70% go a little early for first pregnancies.

circe

That just can't be right. The mean for *all* pregnancies is 283 days (your
EDD is 40 weeks, which is 3 days before that). There's no way the average
can be three days after the due date if 70% of first pregnancies end before
that.time.

As Dagny said, there's research showing the median length of a first
pregnancy is 41w1d. A poll we did here a while back gave us the same
results.

Of course, it's entirely possible that your prenatal class instructor was
taking into acocunt everyone who's labor is induced. Given the tendency
these days to induce at the drop of a hat, it wouldn't surprise me at all to
find certain practitioners or hospitals with stats like that.

FWIW, I was induced with my first at 41w4d.
--
Be well, Barbara
Mom to Sin (Vernon, 2), Misery (Aurora, 5), and the Rising Son (Julian, 7)

This week's suggested Bush-Cheney Campaign Slogan:
"Why change hor***** in mid-apocalypse?"

All opinions expressed in this post are well-reasoned and insightful.
Needless to say, they are not those of my Internet Service Provider, its
other subscribers or lackeys. Anyone who says otherwise is itchin' for a
fight. -- with apologies to Michael Feldman

circe

Sorry, this should read that the *median* for all pregnancies is 283 days,
meaning half deliver before and half after. My apologies!
--
Be well, Barbara
Mom to Sin (Vernon, 2), Misery (Aurora, 5), and the Rising Son (Julian, 7)

This week's suggested Bush-Cheney Campaign Slogan:
"Why change hor***** in mid-apocalypse?"

All opinions expressed in this post are well-reasoned and insightful.
Needless to say, they are not those of my Internet Service Provider, its
other subscribers or lackeys. Anyone who says otherwise is itchin' for a
fight. -- with apologies to Michael Feldman

dagny

That is completely contrary to all the evidence, and I think you should take
this as a warning about the accuracy of information you are getting in your
class.

-- Dagny
Who is pretty pissed that one of her friends is being taught "distraction
techniques" in hospital birthing class; thinks they are just trying to sell
her an epidural.

ericka kammerer

Nope. They come when they come. Apparently, there are
some things they've been researching (usually in the context of
trying to figure out if preterm labor is imminent) to see if
they can find a good predictor of when someone will go into
labor, but as I understand it, they still don't have anything
that's all that reliable or cost effective under normal
cir***stances. Plus, I think all of those only predict labor
in the very near future.
You can't tell by your dates. You can't tell by what
happened to relatives. You can't tell by whether the baby
has dropped. You can't tell by effacement/dilation. Even
losing your mucus plug or having contractions isn't always a
reliable indicator! Pretty much nothing short of contractions
that are getting regular, longer, stronger, and closer together
is a good indicator ;-) The median length of gestation for
first timers is 41 weeks and 1 day.

Best wishes,
Ericka

sue

#1: She was two weeks early.
#2: She was five days late.
#3: She was one day early.

There isn't anything in the world going to tell you when the baby is going
to be born. They have their own time table.
--
Sue (mom to three girls)

anne rogers

that must have been frustrating the 2nd time, did you think you would go
early again? I know my friend who went 1 day early with her first was
climbing walls desperate to get number 2 out, she was particularly green as
I was due a week after her and ended up being 2 weeks before.