gandalf grey

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=536&ncid=536&e=5&u=/ap/20030
728/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/terror_market

Pentagon's Futures Market Plan Condemned
35 minutes ago Add Politics - AP to My Yahoo!


By KEN GUGGENHEIM, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - The Pentagon (news - web sites) is setting up a stock-market
style system in which investors would bet on terror attacks, assassinations
and other events in the Middle East. Defense officials hope to gain
intelligence and useful predictions while investors who guessed right would
win profits.

Two Democratic senators demanded Monday the project be stopped before
investors begin registering this week. "The idea of a federal betting parlor
on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque," Sen. Ron
Wyden (news, bio, voting record), D-Ore., said.


The Pentagon office overseeing the program, called the Policy ****ysis
Market, said it was part of a research effort "to investigate the broadest
possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." It said there would
be a re-evaluation before more money was committed.


The market would work this way. Investors would buy and sell futures
contracts - essentially a series of predictions about what they believe
might happen in the Mideast. Holder of a futures contract that came true
would collect the proceeds of investors who put money into the market but
predicted wrong.


A graphic on the market's Web page showed hypothetical futures contracts in
which investors could trade on the likelihood that Palestinian leader Yasser
Arafat (news - web sites) would be assassinated or Jordanian King Abdullah
II would be overthrown.


Although the Web site described the Policy ****ysis Market as "a market in
the future of the Middle East," the graphic also included the possibility of
a North Korea (news - web sites) missile attack.


That graphic was apparently removed from the Web site hours after the news
conference in which Wyden and fellow Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan (news,
bio, voting record) of North Dakota criticizing the market.


Dorgan described it as useless, offensive and "unbelievably stupid."


"Can you imagine if another country set up a betting parlor so that people
could go in ... and bet on the assassination of an American political
figure, or the overthrow of this institution or that institution?" he said.


According to its Web site, the Policy ****ysis Market would be a joint
program of the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, known
as DARPA, and two private companies: Net Exchange, a market technologies
company, and the Economist Intelligence Unit, the business information arm
of the publisher of The Economist magazine.


DARPA has received strong criticism from Congress for its Terrorism
Information Awareness program, a computerized surveillance program that has
raised privacy concerns. Wyden said the Policy ****ysis Market is under
retired Adm. John Poindexter, the head of the Terrorism Information
Awareness program and, in the 1980s, a key figure in the Iran-Contra
scandal.


In its statement Monday, DARPA said that markets offer efficient, effective
and timely methods for collecting "dispersed and even hidden information.
Futures markets have proven themselves to be good at predicting such things
as elections results; they are often better than expert opinions."


The description of the market on its Web site makes it appear similar to a
computer-based commodities market. Contracts would be available based on
economic health, civil stability, military disposition and U.S. economic and
military involvement in Egypt, Iran, Iraq (news - web sites), Israel,
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey.


Contracts would also be available on "global economic and conflict
indicators" and specific events, for example U.S. recognition of a
Palestinian state.


Traders who believe an event will occur can buy a futures contract. Those
who believe the event is unlikely can try to sell a contract. The Web site
does not address how much money investors would be likely to put into the
market but says ****ysts would be motivated by the "prospect of profit and
at pain of loss" to make accurate predictions.


Registration would begin Friday with trading beginning Oct. 1. The market
would initially be limited to 1,000 traders, increasing to at least 10,000
by Jan. 1.


The Web site says government agencies will not be allowed to participate and
will not have access to the identities or funds of traders.

The market is a project of a DARPA division called FutureMAP, or "Futures
Markets Applied to Prediction." FutureMAP is trying to develop programs that
would allow the Defense Department to use market forces to predict future
events, according to its Web site.

"The rapid reaction of markets to knowledge held by only a few participants
may provide an early warning system to avoid surprise," it said.

It said the markets must offer "compensation that is ethically and legally
satisfactory to all sectors involved, while remaining attractive enough to
ensure full and continuous participation of individual parties."

Dorgan and Wyden released a letter to Poindexter calling for an immediate
end to the program. They noted a May 20 report to lawmakers that cited the
possibility of using market forces to predict whether terrorists would
attack Israel with biological weapons.

"Surely such a threat should be met with intelligence gathering of the
highest quality - not by putting the question to individuals betting on an
Internet Web site," they said.

Wyden said $600,000 has been spent on the program so far and the Pentagon
plans to spend an additional $149,000 this year. The Pentagon has requested
$3 million for the program for next year and $5 million for the following
year.

Wyden said the Senate version of next year's defense spending bill would cut
off money for the program, but the House version would fund it. The two
versions will have to be reconciled.

___

On the Net:

Policy ****ysis Market: http://www.policy****ysismarket.org

DARPA's FutureMap Web site: http://www.darpa.mil/iao/FutureMap.htm


--
--
FAIR USE NOTICE: This post contains copyrighted material the use of which
has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. I am
making such material available in an effort to advance understanding of
environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and
social justice issues, etc. I believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any
such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright
Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107

"If this were a dictatorship, it'd be a heck of a lot easier, just so
long as I'm the dictator." - GW Bush 12/18/2000.

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that
we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic
and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public."
---Theodore Roosevelt

"I think all foreigners should stop interfering in the internal affairs of
Iraq."
-- Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz,

tempest

This was already done to some extent when someone, or someones, placed
short stock transactions on the airlines the 9/11 hijackers crashed into
the World Trade Towers.

We never did hear if anyone tried to collect on the profits they made
from the deaths of 3,000 people.


--
"If the Lord can see his way clear to bless the Republican Party the way
it's been carrying on, then the rest of us ought to get it without even
asking."
- Will Rogers

gandalf grey

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=536&ncid=536&e=5&u=/ap/20030
728/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/terror_market

Pentagon's Futures Market Plan Condemned
35 minutes ago Add Politics - AP to My Yahoo!


By KEN GUGGENHEIM, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - The Pentagon (news - web sites) is setting up a stock-market
style system in which investors would bet on terror attacks, assassinations
and other events in the Middle East. Defense officials hope to gain
intelligence and useful predictions while investors who guessed right would
win profits.

Two Democratic senators demanded Monday the project be stopped before
investors begin registering this week. "The idea of a federal betting parlor
on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque," Sen. Ron
Wyden (news, bio, voting record), D-Ore., said.


The Pentagon office overseeing the program, called the Policy ****ysis
Market, said it was part of a research effort "to investigate the broadest
possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." It said there would
be a re-evaluation before more money was committed.


The market would work this way. Investors would buy and sell futures
contracts - essentially a series of predictions about what they believe
might happen in the Mideast. Holder of a futures contract that came true
would collect the proceeds of investors who put money into the market but
predicted wrong.


A graphic on the market's Web page showed hypothetical futures contracts in
which investors could trade on the likelihood that Palestinian leader Yasser
Arafat (news - web sites) would be assassinated or Jordanian King Abdullah
II would be overthrown.


Although the Web site described the Policy ****ysis Market as "a market in
the future of the Middle East," the graphic also included the possibility of
a North Korea (news - web sites) missile attack.


That graphic was apparently removed from the Web site hours after the news
conference in which Wyden and fellow Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan (news,
bio, voting record) of North Dakota criticizing the market.


Dorgan described it as useless, offensive and "unbelievably stupid."


"Can you imagine if another country set up a betting parlor so that people
could go in ... and bet on the assassination of an American political
figure, or the overthrow of this institution or that institution?" he said.


According to its Web site, the Policy ****ysis Market would be a joint
program of the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, known
as DARPA, and two private companies: Net Exchange, a market technologies
company, and the Economist Intelligence Unit, the business information arm
of the publisher of The Economist magazine.


DARPA has received strong criticism from Congress for its Terrorism
Information Awareness program, a computerized surveillance program that has
raised privacy concerns. Wyden said the Policy ****ysis Market is under
retired Adm. John Poindexter, the head of the Terrorism Information
Awareness program and, in the 1980s, a key figure in the Iran-Contra
scandal.


In its statement Monday, DARPA said that markets offer efficient, effective
and timely methods for collecting "dispersed and even hidden information.
Futures markets have proven themselves to be good at predicting such things
as elections results; they are often better than expert opinions."


The description of the market on its Web site makes it appear similar to a
computer-based commodities market. Contracts would be available based on
economic health, civil stability, military disposition and U.S. economic and
military involvement in Egypt, Iran, Iraq (news - web sites), Israel,
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey.


Contracts would also be available on "global economic and conflict
indicators" and specific events, for example U.S. recognition of a
Palestinian state.


Traders who believe an event will occur can buy a futures contract. Those
who believe the event is unlikely can try to sell a contract. The Web site
does not address how much money investors would be likely to put into the
market but says ****ysts would be motivated by the "prospect of profit and
at pain of loss" to make accurate predictions.


Registration would begin Friday with trading beginning Oct. 1. The market
would initially be limited to 1,000 traders, increasing to at least 10,000
by Jan. 1.


The Web site says government agencies will not be allowed to participate and
will not have access to the identities or funds of traders.

The market is a project of a DARPA division called FutureMAP, or "Futures
Markets Applied to Prediction." FutureMAP is trying to develop programs that
would allow the Defense Department to use market forces to predict future
events, according to its Web site.

"The rapid reaction of markets to knowledge held by only a few participants
may provide an early warning system to avoid surprise," it said.

It said the markets must offer "compensation that is ethically and legally
satisfactory to all sectors involved, while remaining attractive enough to
ensure full and continuous participation of individual parties."

Dorgan and Wyden released a letter to Poindexter calling for an immediate
end to the program. They noted a May 20 report to lawmakers that cited the
possibility of using market forces to predict whether terrorists would
attack Israel with biological weapons.

"Surely such a threat should be met with intelligence gathering of the
highest quality - not by putting the question to individuals betting on an
Internet Web site," they said.

Wyden said $600,000 has been spent on the program so far and the Pentagon
plans to spend an additional $149,000 this year. The Pentagon has requested
$3 million for the program for next year and $5 million for the following
year.

Wyden said the Senate version of next year's defense spending bill would cut
off money for the program, but the House version would fund it. The two
versions will have to be reconciled.

___

On the Net:

Policy ****ysis Market: http://www.policy****ysismarket.org

DARPA's FutureMap Web site: http://www.darpa.mil/iao/FutureMap.htm


--
--
FAIR USE NOTICE: This post contains copyrighted material the use of which
has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. I am
making such material available in an effort to advance understanding of
environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and
social justice issues, etc. I believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any
such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright
Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107

"If this were a dictatorship, it'd be a heck of a lot easier, just so
long as I'm the dictator." - GW Bush 12/18/2000.

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that
we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic
and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public."
---Theodore Roosevelt

"I think all foreigners should stop interfering in the internal affairs of
Iraq."
-- Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz,

tempest

This was already done to some extent when someone, or someones, placed
short stock transactions on the airlines the 9/11 hijackers crashed into
the World Trade Towers.

We never did hear if anyone tried to collect on the profits they made
from the deaths of 3,000 people.


--
"If the Lord can see his way clear to bless the Republican Party the way
it's been carrying on, then the rest of us ought to get it without even
asking."
- Will Rogers