Harry hope 2011-08-15 14:20:40
The International Herald Tribune, 7/31/03:
Enough of Poindexter
NYT Thursday, July 31, 2003
The latest idea hatched by John Poindexter’s wacky espionage operation
at the Pentagon – an online futures trading market where speculators
could bet on the probabilities of terrorist attacks, assassinations
and coups – would be terrifying if it wasn’t so patently absurd.
The idea was quickly canned by embarrassed Pentagon officials.
The obvious next step is to close down Poindexter’s spy shop, and to
send him packing.
In testimony before the U.S. Congress on Tuesday, Paul Wolfowitz, the
deputy secretary of defense, disowned the futures project.
The idea is mind-boggling.
Quite apart from the utter insensitivity of equating terrorist attacks
with, say, corn futures, the plan would allow speculators – even
terrorists – to profit from anonymous bets on future attacks.
The project’s theoretical underpinnings are equally absurd.
Markets do not always operate perfectly in the larger world of stocks
The idea that they can reliably forecast the behavior of isolated
terrorists is ridiculous.
The “Policy Analysis Market” would actually have opened for business
on Oct. 1 had Senators Ron Wyden and Byron Dorgan not blown the
Despite Wolfowitz’s pledge to kill it, however, the problem of
He is a man of dubious background and dubious ideas.
A retired rear admiral, he served as President Ronald Reagan’s
national security adviser and helped devise the plan to sell arms to
Iran and illegally divert the proceeds to the rebels in Nicaragua.
He was sentenced to six months in jail for lying to Congress, a
conviction overturned on appeal.
He resurfaced under the second Bush administration at the Pentagon.
His first big brainstorm post-9/11 was a program known as Total
Information Awareness, designed to identify potential terrorists by
compiling a detailed electronic dossier on millions of Americans.
Congress agreed earlier this year to subject that program to strict
oversight and prohibit it from being used against Americans.
In light of the revelations about the latest Poindexter scheme,
Congress obviously did not go far enough.
It has to close his operation for good.
The Senate recently agreed to do just that, adding an amendment to a
Defense Department appropriations bill that would terminate funds for
The House should follow suit.
This man must go.
“We’ve got to get rid of that man at once. Now I’ve got a plan. You
say something to make him mad, and he’ll strike you… and we’ll force
him to leave the country.”
From the film “Duck Soup”
F h 2011-08-16 19:43:36
http://www.policyanalysismarket.org taken offline the same day the news
report about it came out.
But you can trade in terrorism futures at this site, which apparently is
located in Ireland.
So it looks like the DOD is, as usual, behind the times. Before they could
even get their terrorism futures trading system online, one had already been
publicly in operation long before them.
Server 13 2011-08-21 23:07:18
Yeah, but they ‘trade’ in other stuff too. it looks like a bookie parlor of
Top 10 Most Traded Contracts
Bid Ask Vol Chge
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Win
11.0 11.5 41968 0
2003 DJIA to Close On or Below 6999 on Dec 31 2003
5 8 41651 0
2003 DJIA to Close On or Above 10,000 on Dec 31 2003
17 20 35555 0
New York Yankees to Win
20.5 23.0 28114 0
St. Louis Rams to Win
6.2 6.9 24840 0
2003 DJIA to Close on or between 8000 and 8499 on Dec 31 2003
10 12 23850 0
John Kerry to be 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee
32 34 22348 0
Joe Lieberman to be 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee
14 17 18764 0
Chicago Cubs to Win
13.0 16.0 16506 0
Hillary Clinton to be 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee
7 8 16072 +1