jeremey wilson

Since there's not much going on, and the roster looks to be pretty much
set, maybe I'll try to force a discussion. Starting with the changes:

* Gooden replaces Boozer

I suppose Gooden still has the potential to be a star, but it's difficult
for me to come up with a recent guy who's received the minutes he's
received at his age, done as little as he's done with it, and then gone on
to be good. Getting a lot of minutes at power forward should mean that his
rebounding numbers will go up, and probably at least look respectable --
witness Lamar Odom and his move from SG/SF to the 4. Offensively, he has
no real hope of matching Boozer's efficiency.

If the power forward of 2008 is on the roster now, I'd put my bet on
Varejao. We should still be trying to trade for Sweetney or Wilcox, who
are the most likely candidates to be the Next Zach Randolph.

* The backcourt: Snow and McInnis

This looks like a bad idea, but not as bad an idea as playing two point
guards would normally be, and not for the same reason. Snow and McInnis
are both big, and Snow, at least, has a reputation as a good defender. I
don't think this is going to be a defensive nightmare, which is why I don't
think they'll try it for two weeks and then change the lineup.

The problem, I'll guess, is that Snow will be the primary point guard,
which means less ballhandling for Lebron and McInnis. The strength of both
(especially Lebron) is that they can start a fast break from nothing. The
strength of Snow is that he can get the ball across halfcourt without
turning it over.

Basketball statheads, I am given to understand, value this skill immensely.
They are probably right; but at the very least, it's unaesthetic. From my
very dilletantish forays into statheadia, though, it doesn't look to me
like they have a good way of distinguishing fast breaks from halfcourt
offense, though, and even if they do, I don't think anyone credits guys for
starting fast breaks. This seems like a pretty glaring omission.

The starting lineup for the Cavs will still have no real outside shooting,
and they've replaced Boozer with the far less efficient Gooden. The
halfcourt game will probably be, if anything, even worse than last year,
which means fastbreaking would be even more valuable. But the problem here
is mostly player usage, and I'm assuming some things. Still, I'm expecting
a downgrade.

* Outside shooting white guys on the bench: Jackson and Pavlovic

I expect Pavlovic will play more, and I don't really know what to expect.
Jackson will probably struggle; Jarvis Hayes was, I think, more suited to
the NBA -- more athletic, probably a better shooter -- and he had a pretty
up-and-down rookie year, tending toward down. Jackson's probably a better
ballhandler, though, and should have more ability to score inside, though
I'm not sure how he'll manage to get any touches in the post. This was the
right pick at the time (in hindsight, they should've gotten a 4), but I
doubt we'll reap many dividends this year.

On the plus side, there's no Ricky Davis all year, which makes them better.
Also, I think Z can be better -- his passing and defense in particular
improved over the course of last year, and I really don't know why it
couldn't continue to improve. It seems like he plays better the lighter he
is, and I think the more offseasons he has without a broken foot, the
lighter he'll be.

And then there's Lebron, obviously. I'm not sure the effect the Olympics
will have on his development. He's a coach's pet, God bless 'im, and it
sounds as if his defense has improved a great deal. Credit could be due to
Larry Brown. On the other hand, practicing for the Olympics precludes him
from shooting a thousand jumpers a day, so he probably won't come back with
a jumpshot.

Given their record post-Ricky Davis (and before McInnis's injuries), I
think .500 is possible. If Lebron explodes, or Jackson, Gooden, or
Pavlovic turns out to be good, better. That's probably me at my most
optimistic. Matching last year's record would probably be a triumph.

--
Jeremey

j.t.

<snip> (I don't want to start a 40 page thread, no offense)

Honestly, I'm not convinced that Boozer is as good as he's cracked up to be
on his own. So far he excelled on a fantastic team at Duke, was mediocre
his rookie year, then had a good season playing with LeBron and Z. I'm not
gonna be petty and say he flat out ****s, but I also don't believe his
contributions can't be replaced. Gooden is a fine player, and if he just
gets in there to crash the boards, we'll get what we need from the 4.
Boozer made his money as a clean-up guy and tertiary option, so we'll have
at least that, if not the #2 option we all hoped he'd become w/LeBron.

I really like this move. Snow is a rich man's Kevin Ollie - a ball handler
who distributes well and does his job on defense. Snow, however, has the
ability to score (as well as the confidence to do so). He played well
alongside AI, so he's used to the one man band deal, only he's got Z inside
now. I think Snow will end up being a favorite. I still really like
McInnis - he's got the energy and aggressiveness to keep the play up-tempo
and attacking, a perfect compliment to Snow's half-court, inside-out style.
Plus, he can shoot well enough to carry his weight. Shit, as long as I
don't see Kevin Ollie's peanut head in a Cav's uniform all season, I'm happy
with our PGs.

It all depends on Silas and what he's willing to do. I don't know that
Kapono got as many minutes as he should've had, especially considering the
dire need for outside shooting all season, but he couldn't play defense and
got ripped every time he put the ball on the floor, so I can understand it.
If either one of our deadeye white men can keep up average contributions
elsewhere in his game, we should be seeing more of them (and finally some
goddamn tre's)

better.

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with

dan hosek

SNIP

It all depends if one of our below mentioned white guys + one other
(McInnis/LeBron) really become solid shooters. Probably not. But, I think
you could see him run hi-lo with Z, maybe. Z can hit the 12-14 footer.

If he goes 12/9, or 10/8 as opposed Boozer's 15/12, we should be okay.


I agree about the Varejao thing. Dunno about Sweetney or Wilcox. I
thought the former was too short (of course, I always applaud the efforts
of Weatherspoon) and the latter too thin, which is my knock on Gooden.

I say it's a wait and see what happens. 4 by committee is better than 5 by committee.


SNIP

I agree with this assessment. The only salvation is that Snow does go thru
spurts where he can shoot from 15'.

The downside to this is that clogs the lane for anybody. The arc is at
22' last time I checked.

It makes me wonder if they had interest in McInnis, or if there is more
wrong with him than we know about.

That being said, I always liked Snow, but not as much as McInnis. And
definitely not at his price tag. I think Paxson really screwed the pooch
on this one. Maybe he is going to coach too, or something.


SNIP

I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised by one of them. As long as Silas
doesn't get Lenny Wilkens' syndrome (ie, no rookies play significant
minutes), one of them should play well. Maybe both, at different times
would be a bonus and keep Newble's behind where it belongs (on the pine).

Big plus about Davis. I think that alone gives them 6 games in the plus
column.

Knock on wood about Z. See the comment above about 4/5 by committee.

Dunno. He sparked the comeback - and jumpshooting is the international
game. Then he doesn't play for a while. Ric Bucher (who does say some
smart things once and a while) say the US has no hope as long as LeBron is
on the bench. I think Larry Brown just has gotten Lenny Wilkens' syndrome.

I think they will be a 40 win team, with no MAJOR injury. 45, if one of
the question marks (preferably one of the white shooter guys) has a solid
year.

ben

I'd bet the field at hilarious odds on that, though. James might be the most
likely player currently on the roster.


Yeah, it's not a defensive nightmare, but an offensive one. A
Z-Gooden-James-Snow-McInnis lineup has absolutely no outside shooting. We
have to hope one of the white swingmen is the real deal, or we acquire a shooter.


I like his chances. Very young, apparently multi-talented.

Age is something people don't pay enough attention to in the NBA. Everyone
gets all excited about Amare Stoudamire because he's a straight from HS
rookie, but he's older than Dajuan Wagner. Etc.

Well, I have to think there's one or two more personnel moves to be made. We
are a big man and a swingman short, and still have Wagner on the team. Trade
Wagner for a center and sign a 2 or 3 and we look good, but easier said than
done.

Otherwise, ugh. We are exceptionally thin up front. If Gooden and Z don't
play 150 games between them, we are right back in the thick of the lottery.

jeremey wilson

I was _trying_ to start a 40 page thread! I can only get so much joy out
of turning crossposts into flamewars.


His rookie year was fine, and his second season was very fine. Boozer's a
top-10 to top-15 power forward, and he will be for the next ten years;
he'll make a few All-Star teams, and probably not the Hall of Fame, unless
his career's very long. Thinking otherwise is sour g****s. It's not
losing Duncan. Probably more like losing Kenyon Martin. He's hard to
replace.

Whether the Cavs should've spent $11 million on him is a different
question, and there I'd agree the answer is no.

Gooden is a fine player, and if he just


A tertiary option who shoots 53% is better than a tertiary option who
shoots 41%. Just the fact that they have the same job doesn't mean they
both do it equally well.
--
Jeremey

jeremey wilson

syndrome.

In the Lithuania game, Anthony got Lebron's minutes. I think that was
makeup for Brown bashing Anthony in the press for a week and a half. Seems
to me that the Olympics is too short a pier to be doing backflips in the
aid of some guy's personal growth*, but that's why I'm not Olympic head
coach. Maybe Brown doesn't want any bad blood there, in case the Denver
job opens up next year.

[* That metaphor sure crashed and burned, didn't it? It sounded so good in
my head.]

--
Jeremey

jeremey wilson

I dunno. I don't think anybody's had much success translating stats from
other leagues to the NBA. The NBA game seems to be qualitatively different
from other basketball -- probably the defense and the athleticism. I'd
probably say _too much_ attention is given to age, and that the only real
guide to NBA success is NBA success. Which is a truism, but my emphasis is
different.

How bout: Youth is no excuse for failure.

Ed, what's the right answer?

--
Jeremey

igor eduardo küpfer

As far as I know, it's only been tried seriously for the last couple of year.
I don't think anybody's tested the success of the translations yet.

I think the main difference between NBA ball and college ball is the variance
in the quality of opponents. Quantifying strength of schedule is the most
important thing the translations have to do right.

An answer to a related question: what matters most, age or NBA experience? The
last time I looked, NBA experience was a statistically insignificant variable
in explaining value. Age was the significant variable. My study was complete
enough for me to consider the matter settled.

Players tend to peak between ages 26-28. But their skills peak and decline at
different rates. I have a little webpage showing this stuff in graphical form:
http://members.rogers.com/brothered/aging_patterns.html

--

--------------------------------------------------------------
| best, | You're doing a lot of choppin' |
| ed | but no chips are flyin.' |
--------------------------------------------------------------
Watch the spam trap -- the domain is rogers

igor eduardo küpfer

Boozer's 04 season has an odd set of comps:

TOP 10 COMPS (YEAR)TEAM SIMSCORE

1 Walker, Samaki (1998) DAL 876
2 Duncan, Tim (1998) SAN 869
3 Roberts, Stanley (1992) ORL 869
4 ***mings, Terry (1983) SDC 866
5 Randolph, Zach (2004) POR 865
6 Trent, Gary (1997) POR 863
7 Johnson, Larry (1992) CHA 860
8 Thomas, Kenny (2000) HOU 859
9 Willis, Kevin (1985) ATL 859
10 Ellis, LaPhonso (1993) DEN 856

That's a weird top 5. One of the odder things about Boozer's season is that he
was so effective, even though he used up so few possessions. My system has him
contributing 6 net marginal wins last year.

Contrast that with Gooden, who contributed 5 net marginal losses. He had a
horrible offensive rating and even worse defensive rating -- but used up more
possessions that Boozer, not a good combination (22% vs 19% -- note that 20%
is an average player, one who uses 1/5 of team possessions). Gooden's most
similar 22-year-olds:

TOP 10 COMPS (YEAR)TEAM SIMSCORE

1 Smith, Joe (1998) TOT 985
2 Carroll, Joe Barry (1981) GS 985
3 Mustaf, Jerrod (1992) PHX 981
4 Howard, Juwan (1995) WAS 980
5 Foster, Greg (1991) WAS 980
6 Gondrezick, Glen (1978) NY 979
7 Washington, Wilson (1978) TOT 978
8 Trent, Gary (1997) POR 977
9 Wallace, Rasheed (1997) POR 977
10 Brooks, Mike (1981) SDC 977

Yikes!

....

--

--------------------------------------------------------------
| best, | You're doing a lot of choppin' |
| ed | but no chips are flyin.' |
--------------------------------------------------------------
Watch the spam trap -- the domain is rogers

jeremey wilson

<noaddressgiven@yahoo.com>


Has anybody tried Euro translations? Seems like there'd be more parity,
though I have no idea.


Not quite relevant to what I'm trying to ask, I don't think, but
interesting nonetheless. I need to ruminate.

--
Jeremey