grobins

From:
"http://dodgers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/la/news/la_news.jsp?ymd=20040105&content_
id=625144&vkey=news_la&fext=.jsp&c_id=lan"

The article centers around Gagne and how his salary should skyrocket.

Additional text:
"Mota, recently named the top set-up reliever in baseball by Baseball
Weekly, is in line for a raise from the $675,000 he earned in 2003 to the $2
million level. Beltre figures to jump from $3.7 million to around $6
million, while Perez last year earned $3.4 million and should wind up around
$5 million. Cabrera, who had the second-highest batting average on the club
while earning $475,000, will try to triple that total. Roberts, a first-time
eligible, received $400,000 last year when he was limited by injuries and
will be aiming to exceed $1 million. "

</quote>

I found this interesting considering the variance among the players. Gagne,
as the article implies, is worth as much as any reliever in baseball. One
might argue the merits of starters vs. relievers, but regardless, he's a
stud who deserves lots of money. ....Not sure that Carbrera is going to get
1.5 million as a backup/utility. ....Roberts will definitely make a
million. ....I agree that Perez will get 5 million, and that's not an
unreasonable salary to trade if that's in the plans.

Now: Can somebody tell me how in the HELL Beltre could earn 6 million
dollars in arbitration?

gnork

The arbitrator is a moron. That would be the only answer.

meckner

His agent is Scott Boras???

ima pseudonym

Probably a little high, but not that much.

Three 3b, all in their final year before free agency, over the past
two seasons

Player A .254/.320/.446; playing in good hitting environments
Player B .254/.305/.429; playing in good hitting environments (and is
poor defensively, to boot)
Player C .249/.297/.425; playing in worse hitting environment in
majors

Player A is Aaron Boone, who just signed a $5.75 million contract
Player B is Aramis Ramirez, who will be paid $6 million next season.

C is Beltre. He's been better than Ramirez, all things considered.
He's been a little behind Boone, but not all that much. It won't be
tough for the argument to be made to the arbitrator that the market
for 3b of Beltre's ability is near $6 million

grobins

Take 2004 Cabrera:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5979
who hit .282 with 6HR and 37RBI in 347AB at age 31 with 6 years in the
majors
32 2B and .438SLG
Salary: 475K

2004 Beltre: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6039
who hit .240 with 23 HR and 80RBI in 559AB at age 24 with 6 years in the
majors
302B and .424SLG
Salary: 3.7 million


Each is going up for arbitration. Is the arbitrator really going to award
1.5 million to first 3B and over 6 million to the second?


Also, how much better would baseball ****ysts consider Beltre over
replacement level?

ima pseudonym

Yes. First off, Cabrera's service time is just a bit over 3 years -
he's played in parts of 6 seasons, but spent a bunch of four of the
seasons in the minors. So they aren't comparables for arbitration.
Players get paid more, the closer they are to free agency.

Secondly, Cabrera is a part timer, albeit a solid one. Beltre is
compared to starters - and as I argued, he falls in between two nearly
exact comparables who each will be getting around $6 million next season.

Arbitrator's don't understand replacement level. One of the
requirements of baseball arbitrators is that they can't be big
baseball fans. Consequently each side only has a brief period to
convince the arbitrator where the player should be paid relative to
comparable players - comparable in both stats and in service time, and
the arguments used have to be fairly simple. Since there happens to
be two major league 3b with virtually the exact same service time as
Beltre, and since an easy argument can be made that he is roughly the
same as them, he will get paid around what they get paid.

If I were the arbitrator, and Beltre asked for $6 million and the
Dodgers offered $5.5 million I'd go with the Dodger offer. But if he
asked for $6 million and the Dodgers offered, say, $4 million, I would
go with the higher one, since by the rules of arbitration it would be
the more realistic going rate for Beltre, given what other comparable
3b with Beltre's service time get paid.