Joe Borchard to Nationals??????
I cannot see how the Nationals could have a winning season...
Here's why:
1) Tough competition in the division. They will play almost half the
schedule against their division, and that's Atlanta, Philly, Florida,
and the improved Mets. One of those teams may finish under .500, but
I'm guessing anybody playing that schedule would be tested.
2) Lack of resources. Each of the teams in the division other than the
Nats has payroll flexibility to get help at midseason if they're in the
hunt. While MLB owns the Nats, that won't be the case. It's in the
individual and collective interest of the other teams in the division
for Washington to finish fifth. The sale of the team won't be done
before Christmas, I would argue.
3) Lack of talent. The pitching rotation, under the best of
cir***stances, is full of question marks. Two of them have had good
seasons in the past and the rest are possibilities. Day, Patterson,
Rauch could all be good, but it's doubtful that all of them will be
useful in 2005. I have some high hopes for Armas, but he's yet to log a
full season. The bullpen is good up front but not deep, and you would
expect from a minimal payroll franchise owned by the other 29 teams.
4) Weak infield. Vinny Castilla? Please. Cristian Guzman? Last year
in 600 ABs on a good team he was 8 HR, 46 RBI, 10 SB, and an
unbelievably bad .309 On-Base. And his defense is poor. Worst contract
I've seen years, to lock this guy up for 4 years. They could've gotten
any backup SS from any roster in the league at the major league minimum
and gotten equivalent production. And they'll have a hell of a time
trying to unload the contract, too. It's not like he's 24 and
developing; he's 27 and already declining. Vidro is a quality player
who outhit Guzman (14 HR, 60 RBI) in only 110 games; that's a problem,
though, since he had knee surgery in August. And Nick Johnson, who's
got a *sweet* swing, has also yet to play 130 games in a season, and
broken 100 games only once in three full seasons. But he's 26 and worth
being optimistic over. His skills, unlike Guzman's, are likely to
continue to develop.
They're also weak offensively at catcher. In the AL Central I could see
80-83 wins, but this is a tough schedule, and playing the AL West in
interleague play won't help.
I've got my season tickets, but I don't have big expectations. I say:
get rid of Endy Chavez and Castilla; OF of Chruch, Sledge, and Wilkerson
is fine by me; trade Guillen for a young 3B and AA pitching prospect;
find somebody desperate for a SS and unload Guzman; and finally sell the
team to someone who will build a winner.
Rant over!
:-)
John
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